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Scotland's Politics : 1832 - 2015

From: Harry Hayfield <harryhayfield~at~gmail.com>
Date: Sun, 15 Jan 2012 15:25:44 +0000
To: "Jules Verne Forum" <jvf~at~gilead.org.il>

If at any point there is a term or a concept that you do not
understand, then please e-mail me at harryhayfield~at~googlemail.com with the offending term and I shall reply
as soon as possible with an explaination
  
The United Kingdom House of Commons really came into being when the
Great Reform Act of 1832 was passed just before that year's general
election. Prior to that, general elections were simply a case of "Are
you a man, aged over 30 who has property? If so, here is the son of the
lord of the manor who is the only candidate for Parliament in your
area. Any objections if we make sure that you vote for him?". In that
first democratic election, Scotland returned 56 MP's (which divided
Conservatives 13 MP's, Liberals 43 MP's) and entered Parliament as part
of the 658 strong House. As the years rolled on, Scotland seemed quite
happy sending both Conservative and Liberal MP's to Westminster (and
the two parties enjoyed a monopoly of the seats), that is until 1874
when the first Labour MP was elected in the Wansbeck constituency in
North East England signalling a change in the votes of the working
class. The first Scottish Labour MP was elected in Dunfermline East at
the December 1910 General Election but it was not until the 1922
General Election that Labour really hit it big in Scotland. At that
election, they claimed the Central Belt (from Glasgow to Edinburgh) in
a series of results that shocked the Liberal and Conservative parties
to the core. As an example at the 1918 General Election, the Liberals
won the constituency of Glasgow, Cathcart with a majority of 8,000 over
Labour. By 1922, that had been overturned into a Labour majority of
4,000 (with the Liberals slumping into third place). From then on in
the die was cast as Scotland turned from a Liberal / Conservative
battleground into a Conservative / Labour battleground. However, in the
1931 general election, a new party stood in Scotland, and although they
only managed 16,000 votes across the whole of Scotland, the Scottish
National Party (dedicated to making Scotland wholly independent of the
United Kingdom) was born.
  
It was not until the Hamilton by-election in 1967 (when the SNP gained
the seat from Labour on a swing of 28%) that the SNP came to national
attention. In fact, they came to so much national attention that the
BBC placed a live camera in Hamilton to capture the result of the 1970
general election in the constituency (which Labour recovered) which was
a shame as if they had placed a camera in Stornoway in the Western
Isles, they would have captured the election of the first SNP member of
the Westminster Parliament at a general election. Overall the SNP
polled 305,000 votes in that general election and announced that they
would "win more votes and more seats", which they did and it came at a
crucial time. The February 1974 general election was caused when the
Conservative Prime Minister, Edward Heath, asked the nation "Who
governs Britain? The government or the miners?" to which the electorate
replied "We do!" by returning a hung parliament with 301 Labour MP's
and 297 Conservative MP's (both shy of 318 seats needed for a
majority). At that election, the SNP had a barnstormer of an election
gaining six seats in Scotland, polling 600,000 votes and claiming to
the "the party of Scotland" and aiming to have a voice at the coalition
discussions. A government (despite numerous talks between all the
parties at Westminster) failed to be formed and Harold Wilson (who had
been invited by the Queen to form a government) called a general
election for October seeking a mandate (and he only just got it, ending
up with a majority of 3 in Parliament. The SNP however, had their best
election on record, winning 11 seats, polling 790,000 votes and
demanding that Scotland be heard. By 1977, Wilson had lost his overall
majority thanks to by-elections and in 1978 hoping to keep his alliance
with the Liberals intact agreed on referenda in Scotland and Wales on
the merits of devolution. The SNP instantly called for a YES vote and
were confident of success until a Conservative admendment to the bill
saying that "the referendum shall be won if 40% of the electorate vote
for the winning option". This meant that if devolution in Wales and
Scotland was to happen, the YES side would have to poll nearly 66%
working on the assessment of the October 1974 general election turnout.
In the end Scotland said YES in the popular vote, but missed the 40%
mark by 8% (YES 32% of the electorate). The Labour government fell in a
vote of no confidence in 1979, and at that election (which saw the
Conservatives win power) the SNP vote in Scotland collapsed to just
500,000 votes and they lost 9 of their MP's leaving them with just two
(Dundee East and the Western Isles) and their hopes of independence in
tatters.
  
Things got worse in the 1983 general election (330,000 votes or 12% of
the Scottish popular vote) but after experiencing eight years of
Thatcherite government, the SNP started to turn the corner as in 1987,
the SNP gained the Conservative seats of Angus East, Moray and Banff
and Buchan (whilst losing their long term seats of the Western Isles
and Dundee East to Labour) and saw the election of Alex Salmond as the
member for Banff and Buchan. After the SNP's stunning by-election gain
in Glasgow, Govan in 1988 (on a 33% swing), the SNP had their best ever
election result since the 70's at the 1992 general election polling
629,000 votes (21% of the Scottish popular vote) with Alex Salmond (now
leader of the SNP) claiming that "Scotland's time has come". This was
proved in 1995 when they gained Perth and Kinross at a by-election from
the Conservatives (on a 11% swing) and on Election Night 1997, the SNP
not only held Perth, but also gained Tayside North and Galloway and
helped contribute to the wipeout of the Conservatives from the
political map of Scotland thus helping to secure (as outlined in the
Labour manifesto) a referendum on the establishment of a Scottish
Parliament. This time, with no electorate hurdles to jump and a massive
swing to the YES camp since 1979, the YES camp stormed home polling 74%
of the vote (and in a seperate question asking if that Parliament
should be able to vary income tax by 3p in the pound, polled 63%) which
allowed the Scottish Secretary, Donald Dewar to announce the first line
of the Scotland Act 1998, "Scotland shall have a Parliament"
  
The first Scottish Parliament elections saw the first taste of multi
party democracy in Scotland (as the Parliament was decided by a
combination of majority voting and proportional representation) and saw
Labour win the most seats (56) but short of an overall majority
(precisely what the system was designed to do) and so they sought a
coalition with the Liberal Democrats (who had won 17 seats) and so
Donald Dewar was elected as Scotland's First Minister in 1999. However,
just over a year since his election, the Scottish Parliament's
presiding Officer (Lord Steel of Aikwood) delivered a message that
stunned the Parliament, "I have to announce to members, the death of
the member for Glasgow, Anniesland, the First Minister of Scotland,
Donald Dewar". Mr. Dewar had died from a brain haemorrhage after
slipping outside the First Minister's official residence and so the
Scottish Parliament had to elect a new leader but not before Scotland
paid tribute to it's first elected leader since the dissolution of the
old Scottish Parliament back in 1707. Jack McConnell (the Labour MSP
for Motherwell) was elected as First Minister and led Labour into the
2003 elections. Thanks to the PR system, the SNP lost eight seats and
Labour lost six seats as smaller parties such as the Scottish
Socialists and the Greens picked up regional list seats but the
coalition remained intact and although not formally renewed, the
Liberal Democrats agreed not to vote against the Budget. However, the
2007 election (held in the midst of Tony Blair's expected resignation
as Prime Minister was a different kettle of fish entirely). The SNP won
21 constituencies across Scotland (gaining 12 for their highest ever in
an election in Scotland) and polled 33% of the popular vote (1% ahead
of Labour) allowing them to claim 26 regional list seats for a total of
47 seats (just one seat ahead of Labour) and allowing Alex Salmond to
be elected as the next First Minister of Scotland for the first time
ever in the history of the SNP.
  
The 2011 elections for the Scottish Parliament were held one year after
the coalition at Westminster between the Conservatives and the Liberal
Democrats had been drawn up and so all eyes were focused on the Liberal
Democrats (whose Westminster vote had halved in opinion polls) with
people expecting those votes to go to Scottish Labour, however as the
election day came closer the SNP suddenly accelerated into the lead in
the Scottish polls and on the day before polling the offical projection
was that the SNP were within a whisker of an overall majority. As the
polls closed and the votes were counted, it soon became clear that was
an under estimate as the SNP picked up constituencies that had been SNP
wastelands. Dunfermline in 2007 had voted Lib Dem (Lib Dem 33% Lab 33%
SNP 24% Con 8%) but in 2011 elected an SNP MSP (SNP 38% Lab 36% Lib Dem
20% Con 7%) on a swing of 13% from Lib Dem to SNP. Edinburgh Pentlands
had been a Conservative / Labour battleground since the seat's creation
(2007: Con 35% Lab 26% SNP 25% Lib Dem 13%) and also elected an SNP MSP
(2011: SNP 37% Con 31% Lab 27% Lib Dem 5%) on a swing of 8% from Con to
SNP. Edinburgh Southern elected an SNP MSP on a swing of 10% from Lib
Dem to SNP but the real sting came from Glasgow, Shettleston (a seat
that had been Labour for almost a century) when the SNP gained the seat
by just 586 votes on a swing of 12% from Lab to SNP, closely followed
by the former seat of the first Scottish First Minister, Glasgow,
Anniesland, electing an SNP MSP by just 7 votes. This was not just an
SNP win, this was an SNP landslide as the SNP won 53 constituencies (of
the 73 up for grabs) and then compunded this triumph by winning an
additional 16 regional list seats to give them a total of 69 seats (an
overall majority) on a popular vote share of 45% (the SNP's highest
popular vote share). And so, as Alex Salmond arrived at Holyrood (the
home of the Scottish Parliament) the following day, he made his
intentions clear "There will be a referendum on Scottish Independence
in the second half of this parliament's term!" setting up a battle
royal some time from 2014 onwards that will decide the fate of the
United Kingdom.
Received on Sun 15 Jan 2012 - 17:26:42 IST

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